Despite rise in area, India’s tur output may shrink to 20-25 lt on drought

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Adequate imports and buffer stocks to make up for the 15 lakh tonnes short supply, says trade

By Vishwanath Kulkarni

Updated - November 03, 2026 at 09:00 AM. | Bengaluru

The decline in output, despite an increase in acreage, is mainly on account of drought hurting the crop in the key producing states | Photo Credit: Prabhjit Singh Kalsi

India’s tur production for the kharif 2026 season is likely to be in the range of 20-25 lakh tonnes, according to industry and trade estimates. This is lower than the government's production target of 40 lakh tonnes for the year.

The decline in output, despite an increase in acreage, is mainly on account of drought hurting the crop in the key producing states of Karnataka and Maharashtra, and also in parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

“Sowing is marginally higher year-on-year, but late-season moisture stress has raised yield concerns,” said Satish Upadhyay, Hon Secretary, India Pulses and Grains Association, presenting the crop outlook on tur at a webinar organised by the trade body on Friday. If output is near the industry estimate, imports, stocks and substitution will remain important to the balance, he said.

Annual offtake

Tur acreage during the kharif 2026 was 47.25 lakh hectares, up 2.83 per cent versus 45.95 lakh hectares the previous year. India’s annual consumption of tur is estimated to be between 40 lakh tonnes and 45 lakh tonnes.

“Though there is a projected decline in output, the total supply of tur is expected to be in the range of 40-50 lakh tonnes, matching the consumption,” he said. Tur imports this year are likely to be in the range of 10-12 lakh tonnes, while the buffer stocks with the government are expected to be in the range of 8-10 lakh tonnes. Private stocks with trade and mills are estimated at 2-3 lakh tonnes.

Imports from Myanmar are estimated to be in the range of 3.25-3.5 lakh tonnes, while supplies from Africa are projected to be around 8-10 lakh tonnes, due to a lower-than-expected crop in the region. With Brazil emerging as a new supplier this year, supplies from the South American producer are estimated in the range of 10,000-20,000 tonnes by March, he said.

“The weak June monsoon rains delayed the early sowing, while better rainfall during July helped the lost ground. However, the uneven rainfall and dry spells in Maharashtra and Karnataka led to soil moisture shortages and slower late sowing,” Upadhyay said.

“Late-season dry spells may affect crop development, particularly during pod formation. Production and grain quality may be affected, while actual yields will depend on the crop-cutting results. A higher sown area can coexist with a lower output estimate when weather conditions constrain yields. The final assessment remains dependent on the field level results,” he added.

Published on November 3, 2026

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